Food
Security

To project potential future changes associated with the climate suitability of rain-fed agricultural production for certain crops in Grenada, we generated a multi-model ensemble. Multi-model ensembles can provide better information than single model estimates and are useful for estimating uncertainty in climate systems, especially compared to individual models. Here, we work with a subset of CMIP6 climate models from the IPCC AR6. After testing, we used the selected CMIP6 models for both the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2030, 2050, and 2070 projection periods using the SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios. We then downloaded the 19 bioclimatic variables for the period 2030, 2050, and 2070 under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5. The moderate emission scenario (SSPS4.5) assumes “some action on carbon reductions/removals” with subsequent changes in the emissions rates today considering public policies that achieve greenhouse gas reductions to keep warming below 1.5 °C. The business-as-usual scenario (SPSS8.5) considers greenhouse gas emissions with no reduction on the rate of greenhouse gases production.